What is really happening in Tigray, Ethiopia

The first thing you need to know is that anyone who tells you they know exactly what is going on in Tigray and northern Ethiopia is probably not the sort of person you should be listening to.

If you’ve been paying at least passing attention to events you’ll know that there has been fighting between the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian Army since last November. Numerous accusations of crimes against humanity and human rights abuses have been thrown around by all concerned. However one thing has become very clear: much of the main stream coverage has been distinctly slanted towards the narratives pushed by the TPLF and painted the Ethiopian government as the main aggressor. That’s not to say that the TPLF are never accused of wrong doing but the imbalance is undeniable – any news search on the subject and a scan of a few mainstream articles will reveal that.

Why should you be suspicious of this narrative you will rightly ask?

The ruins of Axum in Tigray province

Taking a broad view, its worth understanding who the two main protagonists are. The government under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed are widely accepted as democratically elected, hardly the norm in Ethiopia, (opposition representatives have even been given positions in the cabinet) and the resolution of the long running conflict with Eritrea won the PM the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. The TPLF’s long period of rule of the country under PM Meles Zenawi was highly authoritarian, although an improvement on the previous Derg dictatorship, severely restricted freedoms and committed human right’s abuses. While neither of these cases is any guarantee of behaviour, good or bad, it should at least cause you to question the idea that the current government are the bad guys.

The glaring omission in much news on the war concerns who actually started it. Many articles make vague statements about increased tensions which led to conflict. To put it politely, this is utterly disingenuous. It is an uncontestable fact that the TPLF launched a surprise attack on Ethiopian Army bases on November 3^rd. Despite the fact the TPLF have spoken openly about carrying out the attack, some newspaper reports have referred to it as an alleged attack and have even glossed over their use of child soldiers. In they following days they massacred hundreds of civilians in Mai Kadra, possibly as many as 1500 mainly Amhara victims, clearly motivated by ethic hatred. Some media have attempted to put the blame on the Ethiopian government or suggesting both sides were responsible, by unquestioningly accepting accounts from TPLF supporters.

When the Ethiopian government initiated a unilateral ceasefire in June, the TPLF simply used the opportunity to expand the conflict into neighbouring Afar and Amhara region committing gross human rights violations. If this move was just to put pressure on the government by controlling the vital supply route to the coast as they claim, then why commit atrocities?

Claims of killings and abuses by the government forces, associated militias and the Eritrean army who have supported Ethiopia, must be taken seriously, but even if we accepted these without reservation, the facts above demonstrate that even a narrative of “both sides are responsible in a complex situation”, is still a problematic one. Yet the prevailing narrative in the media remains sympathetic to the TPLF. Substantial doubt has been raised about the initial blame placed on government forces for at least some of the alleged crimes.

The government has been blamed for restricting aid supplies into Tigray and it has accused some agencies, including the U.N. of aiding the TPLF. What is not open to doubt is that the TPLF has looted aid supplies for it’s own forces. The majority of aid trucks, over four hundred, sent into the region recently have gone missing and numerous photos and videos have been published of these being used by the TPLF to move troops. This inconvenient fact has been almost completely ignored by the media and officials demanding the government sends in aid to the starving people in Tigray. It is quite clear that any aid sent would directly support the illegitimate, violent rebellion and in all probability much of it would not go to the people who need it. When in government they had a long history of diverting aid and resources to their home region at the expense of communities elsewhere.  While the media has shown plenty of interest in Tigrayan refugees they seem rather less concerned about Amhara and other groups fleeing TPLF violence.  Somehow in all of this the Ethiopian government is seen as the prime malicious actor in events.

Much outrage has been expended at the government for deporting seven U.N. officials for “meddling” in the country’s affairs as well as suspending operations of two international relief organisations on similar grounds. Journalist Jeff Pearce has demonstrated that the accusations against the U.N. have genuine merit, covering a number of instances and officials. He has been one of the few western voices to really dig behind the headlines. His work is particularly important as the media have shown little interest in what Ethiopian journalists not sympathetic to the TPLF have to say.

So where has this bias been coming from? Shoddy, lazy journalism certainly accounts for some of it, along with a poor understanding of recent Ethiopian history. The TPLF have employed influential lobbying firms in the US (in itself contradictory to the idea of a poor beleaguered independence movement) to push their case and have been very effective at providing translators and support on the ground to gullible, western journalists. CNN in particular has happily swallowed whatever narrative that has been spoon-fed to them, leading to progressively less credible reporting as time goes on. While you can never rule out more insidious motives lurking behind media coverage, it may be simply that once locked into a narrative, changing tack can be too much of a psychological barrier to overcome. Clearly however, pressure has been exerted at a high official level from the US government and the U.N. and it should be borne in mind that the TPLF has had strong connections with both from their time in government. The Obama administration was highly supportive and largely unconcerned by their appalling human rights record.

Some, such as the Grayzone see it as part of US machinations to destabilise the horn of Africa region, to justify further military intervention and inhibit China’s influence among other things. There is almost certainly some truth in this, although we need to avoid seeing all events entirely through the prism of US imperialism, which can deny agency to Africans and disguises the continent’s enormous complexity.  Recent US sanctions to pressure the Ethiopian government to have a ceasefire is clearly aimed at the benefit of the TPLF, who as all evidence shows will simply use it as a means of regrouping and is unlikely to honour it. There are still regular reports of atrocities committed by them.

Breakthrough News (@BTnewsroom) has covered the situation better than most and the aforementioned Jeff Pearce   (@jeffpropulsion) a vital source of information. Both give a voice to Ethiopians who have been largely side-lined. Jemal Countess is one of the Ethiopian journalists who’s done valuable, on the ground reporting in the region. Before you’re tempted to take any mainstream reporting on Ethiopia for granted it is vital you take into account work such as theirs.